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CAMPAIGNING FOR SCOTLAND
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Content of the Flag in the Wind Web Site is the copyright of the Scots Independent Newspaper.

[ Issue 475 - 10th July 2009 ]

Compiled by Richard Thomson

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Was That It?

So, was that it, then? The Calman Commission – the grand Unionist masterplan – the one which was going to stymie independence and the SNP? The Commission which began with no preconceptions, except that Independence was a bad idea? The Commission that no unionist party saw fit to argue for before the SNP took power? The Commission, in short, designed to improve upon what was already perfection?

You must surely have seen the ecstatic crowds, the cheering throngs ever grateful for being spared the burden of being asked their opinion in advance, hoisting Peerie Kenny aloft? The sundry 3 cheers for Iain, Tavish and Annabel? The melodious sound of a band striking up the Unionist jig to which Alex Salmond would now surely be made to dance?

Nope? Me neither.

Forget all the hokum, flim-flam and flapdoodle about this being an 'intellectually rigorous report'. It's nothing of the kind. Quite simply, it is the result of empty minds being brought to a problem which essentially has no right answer. It is the lowest common denominator solution to how far Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives are prepared to allow Holyrood to progress, carrying with it the pseudo-scientific conceit of being somehow 'evidence based'.

Ah, I hear you cry! But surely there were all sorts of brainy Professors involved! Iain McMillan was there to speak for the CBI! There was even a big Brother contestant to make sure that the kids were who they were down with! How can you be so cynical about such a stellar panel of critical, enquiring minds?

Easy. Just look at the proposals for financial powers – in fact, you needn't bother looking all that closely at all - and it will explode any vestige of belief that we might be dealing with any kind of worthwhile analysis here. Half of income tax revenues raised in Scotland are to stay in Scotland, we hear, in order to improve accountability. Well, cock-a-doodle-doo. What happens in a recession when income tax receipts fall? Why not broaden the base by supplementing this with VAT or Corporation Tax revenues? Why is it a good idea to tether the basic and top rates so that the cannot be altered independently of one another? More to the point, why no control over the North Sea tax regime? Really, if it happens it will be a Potemkin power – there for show and nothing else.

The problem with this power, as many eminent economists have pointed out, including some of those on Calman’s expert committee, is that it removes the certainty of the block grant without substituting it for the benefits of full fiscal autonomy. Without an enhanced funding base, Calman’s funding proposals have the potential to do more harm than good.

While proposals to devolve control over air guns and drink drive limits are welcome, let's not forget that these are areas where the SNP was accused in the past of 'picking fights'. Together with proposals to transfer animal welfare (remember the shenanigans over foot and mouth?), it seems that these are matters which perhaps should, in the opinion of the supreme arbiter, be devolved after all. Is this vindication for the SNP here, or is it simply an approach which owes more to reading back through the papers than any attempt to work out what the best division of responsibilities might be within a union state?

It's exactly the sort of timid and irrelevant stodge you'd expect to get when you seek the resultant of the politically inept but nonetheless enormously self-important great and good. And for that, the SNP should probably be grateful – after all, it now means that people can see exactly how little difference 'more powers' would actually make. This is as little as the British State is prepared to concede – if you want more, you're going to have to vote SNP and keep the prospect of independence at the top of the agenda – it really is the only language they speak.

Even then, as one Commission member put it, 'The potential for long grass is considerable'. How true – the Conservative Scottish Parliamentary Group is split on the matter, while you assume that the Lib Dems would have preferred it to go much further. Meanwhile, Labour are back to their old tricks again, with Jim Murphy claiming that the Scottish Parliament funded report is the 'property' [I kid you not] of the British Government and the parties party to the Commission. Despite there being unanimous agreement across Holyrood about the implementation of certain powers, according to Labour the report can only be implemented as a whole, and to suggest otherwise is SNP politicking.

Which must be news to Calman himself, who has said publicly that elements could be progressed fairly quickly. Meanwhile, there may not be sufficient parliamentary time left to allow Labour to implement any or even some of what has been recommended. Irony of ironies, it may be left to a future Prime Minister Cameron to implement the scheme on behalf of a party that has never entirely come to terms with the devolution we already have.

It promises to be an interesting aperitif to the independence referendum or the 2011 election – whichever comes first.

A Compass to Find New Converts

I was in London recently to take part in the Labour-sympathising Compass 'No Turning back' conference. It came about through Mark Perryman – the driving force behind the 'Breaking Up Britain' book to which I contributed a chapter recently. Although not eligible to be a member of Compass thanks to my SNP affiliations, I nonetheless was invited along to take part in a fringe event to discuss some of the themes of the book.

The UK left hasn't always provided the friendliest audience to those of a nationalist persuasion. Partly, it's down to the lazy assumptions made by some about the 'reactionary' nature of nationalists. It's also partly down to the assumption that Labour/Tory politics is the norm, with no real room for others. Viewed thusly, the SNP is at best an irrelevance, at worst a 'force of conservatism' to be railed against whenever it threatens to disrupt the binary 'yookay' political agenda.

Although most of the delegates were either Labour, ex-Labour or unaffiliated 'progressives', there was an impressive array of 'dissidents' there, including Adam Price MP from Plaid Cymru and Caroline Lucas from the English Green Party. Coming right after Labour's drubbing at the Euro elections, it was a commendable display of political ecumenicism, matched only by what can be best described as a determination to seize a new agenda for the broad left in what might be the final 11 months of this Labour government.

With some early preconceptions confounded and buckshee copies of the Guardian and New Statesman in hand, off I went to the first session. The speeches from Billy Hayes, Harriet Harman, John Hilary, Caroline Lucas and Neal Lawson were enjoyably passionate in their defence of social democracy and denunciation of neoliberal economics. However, it was a bit odd from the perspective of a relative outsider to hear the contention advanced that you could in fact fit a cigarette paper between the future spending plans of the Labour and Conservative parties.

Our fringe session, 'No Turning Back on Devolution', attracted in the region of about 40 of the 1,000 delegates. In addition to Mark and myself, there was Professor Arthur Aughey from the University of Ulster; John Osmond of the Institute of Welsh Affairs; Sean Oliver, Sinn Fein's Director of European Affairs; and an impressive one-time Labour PPC, Rupa Huq.

My own contribution was based on the theme of how the SNP had approached government, and how this fed into moves towards independence. The SNP, I contended, was popular for 4 main reasons – personalities, policies, competence and the party’s ability to stand up for the Scottish interest. People still liked the ‘breath of fresh air’ factor – and all had been instrumental in building goodwill and support in business, the civil service, the professions and the third sector – much of which was sceptical before not only about independence, but arguably about devolution itself

Much could also be attributed to a 'normalisation' of politics in Scotland. Where the SNP had been viewed previously by some as almost ‘illegitimate’, the party's very presence in Government had done much to exorcise this. The SNP had won, there are budgets which self-evidently do balance and our ministers quite obviously manage to work happily with Whitehall 99.9% of the time. The sky has emphatically not fallen in, leaving a lot of people's previous anti-SNP rhetoric looking rather foolish.

When it came to independence, it was clear that momentum was building. The SNP continued to make the democratic argument for a vote. While this had been accepted by Wendy Alexander before being dumped by Iain Gray, who was to know what the attitude would be in 12 months time.

Although this meant there was no referendum majority in Holyrood, a majority outside supported a referendum regardless as to how they'd vote given the chance. Support was also finely balanced between those intending to vote 'yes' and those intending to vote 'no', while regardless as to preference, a majority expected Scotland to become independent in their lifetime. This wouldn't deliver independence in itself, but was perhaps an indication as to the overall direction of travel.

Even if Calman's recommendations were implemented before the Westminster election, it still couldn't prevent the election of a Conservative government if that were to be the way the polls went south of the border. In that event, the choice at a 2010 referendum or a 2011 Holyrood election would be between a Cameron government and all that might entail, or the chance to build a progressive, nuclear free and self-governing Scotland. For a lot of left-inclined voters, therefore, the prospect of independence could become quite a tempting choice.

And so opened up the debate. While support for an English Parliament/regional assemblies is growing, a disproportionate number of those who argue for England to be governed differently seem to define themselves by opposition to the EU, to immigration or the welfare state – the antithesis of the sort of civic, progressive nationalism advanced by the SNP.

With our experience over the last few decades, we've got much to offer the emerging national debate in England. It's a battle for hearts and minds and admittedly, mine was only a short sally into 'rival' territory. However, if we are to achieve a new and amicable constitutional settlement between Scotland and the rest of the UK, these are discussions in which we all need to participate, and reach as many others as possible.

Can you circulate as widely as possible (and sign it of course) - lets get a massive number of signatures and protect the
Scottish Football Team

Comment by Craig Brown - Last year FIFA President Mr Blatter made clear that the consequence of Scots, Welsh and Irish participation would be an end to those respective national sides, and crucially the independent league set up in Scotland. So clearly that will have a potentially huge impact economically as well as seriously undermining football in Scotland as we know it.

http://epetitions.scottish.parliament.uk/view_petition.asp?PetitionID=297

Great Britain Football team Raised by: Craig Brown on 17 December 2008
Calling on the Scottish Parliament to urge the Scottish Government to consider what impact the creation of a Great Britain football team at the Olympics or other sporting event would have on the promotion and support it and other public bodies such as sportscotland provide for football as a means of encouraging healthy lifestyle as well as generating economic and social benefits.

Read Christina McKelvie MSP's Weekly Diary

SYNOPSIS

GRAY FAILS REFERENDUM TEST TEN TIMES

POLL SHOWS INCREASING SUPPORT FOR INDEPENDENCE

Figures released in a BBC ICM poll show an increasing number of voters favouring Scotland's independence as a majority of voters call for a referendum on independence and on full taxation powers for the Scottish Parliament. The results are released as Labour leader Iain Gray refused ten times in an interview to support a referendum or to explain his opposition.

SNP Business Convenor Angus Robertson welcomed the results which show 42% of people in favour of the Scottish Parliament negotiating on a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state - an increase of 7% on the same poll conducted in 2007.

Angus Robertson The poll also shows a clear majority, 57% in favour of a referendum to decide Scotland's constitutional future.

When asked on this BBC Radio Scotland's 'Good Morning Scotland' programme, Labour leader in the Scottish Parliament Iain Gray was asked ten times if the Scottish public should have the right to decide Scotland's constitutional future in a referendum and refused to allow the people their say.

Mr Robertson said;

"Ten years ago the Scottish Parliament reconvened at the wish of the Scottish people.

"A decade later, for Labour to deny the people of Scotland their right to decide, not just once, but ten times in one interview shows an appalling lack of respect for the Scottish public and the principle that Scotland's sovereignty lies with the people.

"Today's poll figures are incredibly encouraging as they show people increasingly turning toward the SNP and Scottish independence with those in favour of negotiating for Scotland's independence continuing to increase.

"The Scottish Government's National Conversation has put the public at the heart of the debate over Scotland's future.

"As we mark ten years of devolution this poll shows the clear desire of the Scottish public for the Scottish Parliament to take more responsibility and for the Scottish people to have their say over Scotland's constitutional future."

1. ICM poll figures released today and comparison with most ICM poll in 2007

* ICM/BBC, June 2009

Are you in favour or against the idea of holding a referendum next year on whether Scotland should become independent?

58% in favour

37% against

5% don't know

* ICM/BBC, June 2009

Next year, the Scottish Government wants to hold a referendum to ask the people of Scotland whether they agree or disagree that..."the Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state". Do you think you would vote for or against this proposal?

Yes: 42%

No: 50%

22-24 June, sample: 1010

* ICM/Scotsman, April 2007

The Scottish Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the British government so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and independent state

Yes, I agree: 35%

No, I disagree: 55%

27-30 April 2007, sample size: 1014

2. Good Morning Scotland Transcript (30th June 2009) - Ten Referendum questions highlighted.

(1) Gary Robertson: People want a say, so are you going to support a referendum?

Iain Gray: What is completely clear is support for independence is low and falling. What the Scottish people want is a devolved parliament with more powers than it has just now, that's exactly where we are and a good poll result I think.

(2) Gary Robertson: what they want is by 58% a referendum on whether Scotland should become independent if, as you say, you're going to win that independence referendum why not back it?

Iain Gray: Well I think perhaps a lot of people said yes to that question because they're probably sick hearing about a referendum and they would like it out the way and that's exactly the offer we made 18 months ago to the SNP and the point is Alex Salmond bottled it

(3) Gary Robertson: Yes but this was a survey carried out last month 58% people want a referendum.

Iain Gray: and that's exactly the promise we made 18 months ago and the SNP walked away from that. You know I think a better question to have asked would be whether they thought this was the priority on which their politicians should be focusing

(4) Gary: that wasn't the question that was asked - the question was are you for a referendum 58% are in favour - you're a democrat.

Iain : I'm a democrat I believe in elections but we also did 18 months ago

say to the SNP let's have this referendum, let's have a straight question, let's get it out of the way and it was they who walked away from that and last week in the parliament we had the incredible sight of a Nationalist party actually arguing against more powers for the Scottish Parliament

(5) Gary: But let's ignore the SNP for a second. The Scottish public, 58% say let's have an independence referendum. Now the poll suggests you would win it - so what are you afraid of?

Iain: Well I'm afraid of nothing and that's why 18 months ago we said to the SNP let's have this referendum with a straight question, let's get it out of the way and it was Alex Salmond who bottled that

(6) Gary: but why not now?

Iain: The only referendum that's on offer just now is the SNP's referendum outlined in their white paper which has both a rigged question and a rigged timetable

(7) Gary: Why not give the people what they want? Why not now back a referendum - what's different between now and 18 months ago?

Iain Gray: The difference is that we offered to do this to get it out of the way to ask a fair question, a straight question in fact I think Brian Taylor used that phrase earlier on in your programme a "straight question" ask a straight question, get it out of the way and the SNP refused to do that what they offered to go for is something completely different which there isn't a majority in the parliament for and I think that really the most important findings here are that what the Scottish people support is a strong devolved parliament with more powers than we have at the moment and that's exactly what I'm arguing for.

(8) Gary: Well we'll talk about that in a second but can you explain to the people of Scotland who just a matter of days ago said to opinion pollsters that the majority of them were in favour of a referendum why wont you grant them that now?

Iain: Because it's not in my power to grant them that. The referendum-

(9) Gary: well it's in your power to go along with it you're saying 18 months ago you wanted it - tell them why you don't want it now.

Iain: Because I would favour a referendum only with a straight question - a straight yes/no question that's not an offer, that's not what Alex Salmond is offering - what he is offering is a rigged question so that referendum is not on offer. What is on offer is a strong Scotland in the union a Scottish Parliament with more powers than we have at the moment and that is exactly what in your poll people said they wanted.

Gary: Well indeed people said in our poll yesterday that by a margin of 2 to 1 that they would prefer Holyrood to have control over pensions and also tax. Would you grant them that?

Iain: Well the Calman Commission which we support has proposed exactly more power over taxation. Personally, I think pensions would be more difficult because I think it's one of those areas where risks should be spread across the bigger economic unit and I think there's a benefit in that to us and I think we saw that benefit when it came to the banking crisis and funds were available to save Scotland's two banks - but look what the Calman process suggests is a very significant move in exactly that direction and incredibly what we see is the SNP a nationalist party last week in the parliament actually arguing against more powers for the Scottish Parliament so I think really it isn't us whose running counter to what the Scottish people want rather the SNP

Gary: Well you are running counter because you've just said even though 2 to 1 would have a preference for Holyrood controlling pensions you're not going to go down that road even though a majority - almost 2 to 1 would be in favour of a referendum you're not going to go down that road either.

Iain: Well, I've said to you several times now 18 months ago we made the offer exactly to go down that road and it was the SNP which rejected it. There's nor a majority in the Parliament for a fair referendum now nor is there a majority for the rigged referendum the SNP are proposing

(10) Gary: Well here is an opportunity surely for you to call the SNP's bluff. Why not put forward a referendum with the question you would like to be asked put in the Calman proposals as well it would be very difficult for Mr Salmond and his colleagues to say no to that wouldn't it?

Iain: The reason I don't do that was in the last year we've seen youth unemployment in Scotland double, there are 400,000 Scots on the waiting list for housing, there are hundreds of thousands of Scottish children in schools which are not fit for purpose and there are a thousand apprentices in Scotland who've been made redundant and a referendum will help none of those and those are our priorities.

Gary: But the indications are that things are beginning to turn in the economy

Iain: Well I don't think you asked the question of the Scottish people what are the priorities that your politicians should be focusing on and I think if you had asked that question you might well have found that trying to deal with the economic downturn is actually the thing they want to see us focusing on.

SNP demand answers on shipyard plans

SNP MSP for Govan and Scotland’s Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is demanding immediate answers from Gordon Brown over secret plans to sell Scottish shipbuilding down the river.

SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson is seeking an immediate statement in the House of Commons from the UK Government.

Nicola Sturgeon Speaking as newspaper and media reports suggest plans have already been drawn up to close one or both of the Clyde yards Ms Sturgeon said;

"Labour must come clean over these secret plans to sell Scottish ship building down the river.

"Workers on the Clyde will have woken up this morning to this deeply disturbing news and they deserve answers immediately.

"Gordon Brown must give an immediate assurance that the UK Government will not force the closure of the Clyde yards.

"I have had recent discussions with Alan Johnston, the Chief Executive of BVT who assured me assured me the company was working to secure the long term future of the yards. I will be contacting BVT this morning to demand assurances over their commitment to the Clyde yards and the long term future of Scotland's ship building expertise."

SNP Defence Spokesman and Westminster leader Angus Robertson said;

"I am seeking an immediate Parliamentary statement and debate from the UK Government on the future of the Clyde shipyards.

"Today’s reports will be deeply damaging to morale on the Clyde. Scotland has some of the world’s best ship building expertise and Labour cannot be allowed to sell it down the river."

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