With so
much happening on the Scottish political scene the fiasco surrounding the
conduct of the Election may seem a secondary matter, perhaps even a
distraction. Not so. This is a huge issue that must not be sidelined or
glossed over with a Hutton-style whitewash.
The risk is
that any investigation conducted by those primarily responsible for this
disaster will seek to fudge responsibility and concentrate on the
technicalities of the voting process, with a view to recommending
improvements next time round. This is unacceptable. The suspicion here is
that there was a deliberate attempt to fix the election, an attempt which
came within a whisker of success.
The only
alternative explanation is that the Westminster Minister responsible,
Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander, is unfit for office. Running the
Scottish elections is probably the most important function remaining to the
old Scottish Office in London and for Mr. Alexander to get this so
spectacularly wrong would require his resignation and the end of his
political career.
If, on the
other hand, it transpires that Mr. Alexander was at the centre of a
deliberate attempt to either rig or discredit the Scottish elections then
things are dramatically more serious. Rather than simply contemplating a
loss of his Cabinet seat Mr. Alexander might be facing criminal charges.
Electoral
corruption is possibly the most serious charge any politician can face, on a
par with (and in many ways similar to) the accusation of selling seats in
the House of Lords. Angus McNeil and his talented research team would be
well advised to investigate the relevant legal background.
The scale
of the disenfranchisement is immense. Alan Smart of YouScotland estimates
that the number of people cheated out of their right to vote, before the
polls even opened, through non-delivery of their requested postal votes,
could be of the order of 50,000. Depending how the vote deficit is
calculated that amounts to 50,000 voters who were denied the opportunity to
cast a list vote, a constituency vote and a local government vote, i.e.
150,000 lost votes in total.
This
slightly exceeds the more widely publicised number of disallowed votes:
85,643 in the constituencies and 60,464 in the lists. Many of these were
doubly disallowed (both constituency and list) so the numbers of individuals
concerned are somewhat less. In round terms the total number of individuals
disenfranchised was around 150,000 (50,000 postal voters and 100,000
disallowed) and the total of votes “lost” around 300,000.
Nor is this
all. Worries persist over the validity of the postal votes actually cast.
The vast increase in the number of postal votes at the last Westminster GE
has been accompanied by prosecutions for vote-rigging, especially in the
inner cities of England. Following remarks by judges to the effect that lax
controls over the authenticity of postal votes puts the UK on a par with
“banana republics” this has led to the introduction of spot and identity checks –
but not in Scotland. Why not?
Any
comprehensive inquest into this whole sorry business must address a range of
questions. Some are purely technical, such as the effects of ballot paper
design (especially those changed at the last moment to accommodate the
voting machines) and the confusion arising from having the local elections
(using the very different STV voting system) on the same day as the
parliamentary poll.
Others
relate to the logistics and security aspects of postal voting. (YouScotland
claim that the mechanics of postal voting were transferred to the private
firm which provided the voting machines. Surely not?)
But the
most important question relates to the judgements made within the Scotland
Office. Alexander and his officials claim that decisions such as the single
ballot paper for both list and constituency votes were agreed with all
parties: the truth is more complex. Unlike the parties in Scotland,
Alexander had access to market research that showed the ballot paper gave
rise to a high level of disallowed votes. He claims that they decided on the
design on the basis of surveys showing it commanded majority support among
voters. But this was not the crucial issue: minimal levels of
misunderstanding should have been the goal.
A generous
interpretation of this error might be that Alexander and his advisers were
simply naïve or lazy. Yet given the intense political manipulation endemic
in New Labour campaigning it seems inconceivable that the backroom policy
advisers did not take the opportunity to run the survey results through
their election simulators. They would then have found that confusion over
the voting instructions would primarily penalise the smaller parties
standing only on the list vote and the SNP’s constituency vote. The most
typical disallowed vote was one split between SNP and Green or SNP and
socialist where both votes were cast on the list.
Ironically
the outcome, had this aspect of the fiasco been avoided, would not have been
dramatically different. On a back-of-the-envelope calculation the SNP would
have won a few more constituency seats but at the expense of roughly the
same number of list seats. The Greens would have won up to another 6-8 seats
and the socialist parties perhaps a couple, mainly at the expense of the
three unionist parties. A possible projection would be as follows:
|
SNP |
47 |
|
Labour |
43 |
|
Conservative |
14 |
|
LibDem |
12 |
|
Green |
10 |
|
SSP/Sol |
2 |
|
Margo
|
1 |
This would
still mean an SNP minority Government. The major practical change would be a
rather more balanced unionist/independence balance: 60/69 as against the
actual 50/79.
So, you may
ask, why bother having an inquiry? The principal answer is that that
Alexander’s vote-rigging (if that is indeed the case) is unacceptable in any
democratic society. By disenfranchising individual voters it brings politics
and indeed all public life into disrepute. Failure to punish such behaviour
not only devalues democracy but also encourages the culprits to continue as
before.
And, with a
referendum in prospect, we cannot afford to allow this issue to remain
unresolved.