A FAMOUS VICTORY!
| SNP |
47 |
| Labour |
46 |
| Conservative |
17 |
| Lib-Dem |
16 |
| Greens |
2 |
| Margo |
1 |
The SNP victory in the Scottish Election may be narrow but it is nonetheless
stunning. This changes the political landscape for ever. Labour’s vote may have
held up better than many expected, thanks mainly to the shameless scaremongering
of the red-top press, but their relegation to second place in Scotland, for the
first time in 50 years, marks a turning point. The simultaneous hollowing out of
their local government base will make it difficult to recover from this
traumatic set-back.
A
heartening feature of the SNP victory is its geographical spread. Not only has
the traditional support base of the North-East and Tayside been extended and
previous territories such as Argyll and the Western Isles recaptured but seats
won for the first time in Ayrshire, Fife, Edinburgh and Glasgow. Having spent
part of last week escorting Italian visitors around Bannockburn, Stirling Castle
and the Wallace Monument, I take special pleasure in the capture of Stirling.
“Who holds Stirling rules Scotland.”
While the result is made up of a series of remarkable victories at constituency
level there can be no denying the central role of Alex Salmond. It is very much
his victory, starting with his audacious and brilliant personal triumph in
Gordon, through his ability to think big to his restrained and statesman-like
conduct of the campaign. His authority over the SNP is now unchallengeable, and
deservedly so. This is critically important in the difficult days ahead when
self-discipline among SNP MSPs wil be essential.
Many congratulations to all those involved.
NOW FOR THE HARD PART
Winning
is one thing, governing another. The SNP is the largest party but it holds only
47 of the 129 seats, 18 short of a majority. Alex Salmond has indicated that he
would prefer a coalition but this may not be feasible. While difficult a
minority government, seeking parliamentary approval on an issue-by-issue basis
,may be preferable to the alternatives.
The SNP will have the benefit, initially at least, of widespread public
goodwill. The success of the regional vote strategy of placing “Alex Salmond for
first minister” on the ballot paper confirms the widespread anecdotal evidence
that the voters are eager for the SNP to be given an opportunity to run
Scotland. Any opponent seeking to sabotage the new government will suffer
substantial electoral damage.
Minority government is possible given skill and a shrewd realism, qualities Alex
Salmond has in abundance.
MEANWHILE, BACK AT WESTMINSTER….
An intriguing footnote to the various surveys of Scottish opinion conducted
during the Scottish Election campaign is that voters express a high degree of
support for the SNP at Westminster elections, possibly linked to the campaigns
on Iraq and cash-for-honours. One poll suggested that the SNP might end up with
28 seats in Westminster in an early General Election. In a close-run contest
this might amount to the balance of power.
Should the Unionist parties attempt to gang up to deny the SNP a role in
government, they may find themselves penalised in London. Interesting times.
ELECTION SHAMBLES
The one sour note regarding the election victory has been the chaos surrounding
the count. Much of the blame for this lies with London since elections are a
reserved matter. Heads should roll, starting with Scotland Secretary Douglas
Alexander.
The
actual effect on the result is difficult to calculate. Up to 100,000 votes are
said to have been declared invalid. The assumption that this was equally
distributed among parties may be flawed. One American expert said that the main
confusion arose from voters trying to cast two votes on the list or constituency
ballot. He thought that this probably affected the smaller parties (Greens, SSP,
Solidarity, etc.) but it may also explain the smaller than expected SNP lead in
the constituencies since it is probable that the bulk of Green and Socialist
intending voters were trying to vote SNP in the constituencies (where their
parties were not standing) .
A
re-run of the election (at least in those constituencies where the total of
“spoilt” votes exceeds the winner’s majority ) should not be excluded but the
complexity of such a move would be considerable, especially since any change in
a constituency result would have knock-on effects on the list seat allocations.
The least worst option is a full judicial investigation, as suggested by Alex
Salmond.
The review should also be extended to examine the whole voting system. It is
evident that it is now so complex that it confuses many voters and does not
achieve effective government. The imposition of the dog’s breakfast system on
local government has not really been thought through and the AMS system for
Parliament needs to be refined to allow choice between individual candidates and
the replacement of the two votes by one multifunctional vote. Also, there is no
good reason for local polls to be held on the same day, let alone on the day of
the parliamentary contest.
