THE SUCKER PUNCH
Just last week, I thought
that I was reporting on the last System 3 poll of this election, but like
corporation (sorry, deregulated) buses, along comes another at the back of
it.
This poll was taken
just 5 days after the statue of Saddam Hussein was toppled, and is seen as
a vindication of Labour’ pro-war stance; as I mentioned a wee while back,
if the war was over quickly and the troops greeted by cheering crowds,
then there would be a problem, and so there is. There are differences to
previous polls; this is a superpoll, and the number of people interviewed
was double the usual, and they were interviewed by telephone, which is not
normally as reliable as face to face. This puts a question mark on its
accuracy.
Scottish Parliament Voting
Intention
| |
LABOUR |
S N P |
LIB DEM |
TORY |
OTHER |
| |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
| Election |
39 |
34 |
29 |
27 |
14 |
12 |
16 |
15 |
3 |
11 |
| Last Year |
36 |
28 |
32 |
30 |
15 |
19 |
12 |
9 |
5 |
13 |
| Last Month |
31 |
26 |
31 |
29 |
16 |
18 |
11 |
9 |
9 |
18 |
| Now |
39 |
30 |
26 |
27 |
12 |
14 |
13 |
11 |
9 |
17 |
We have been here before;
in 1999, another war situation, a similar drop two weeks before the
election was blamed on Alex Salmond’s attack on the high-level bombing of
Kosovo. The fact that history proved him right did not matter, although it
was confirmed that where the bombers thought they were taking out tanks
they were actually taking out microwave ovens; the bombing tactic did not
work, and Milosevic was brought down by sanctions, but all of that is
conveniently forgotten.
I do not believe there will
be any great panic moves this time around; the SNP campaign is well
planned and well run, and four years ago, half of the blip was recovered
before the election. Interesting that it is the traditional establishment
parties, Tory and Labour, which are showing upturns; the SNP is still
level pegging with the actual election on the second vote, whereas Labour
has dropped four points.
Analysis of Others
| |
SSP |
Green |
Others |
| |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
1st % |
2nd % |
| Election |
n/a |
2 |
n/a |
4 |
3 |
5 |
| Last Year |
3 |
6 |
2 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
| Last
Month |
6 |
8 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
| Now |
4 |
6 |
3 |
7 |
2 |
4 |
The end of war swing seems
to be having an effect on the SSP, while the "Others" are showing an
increase; with the plethora of single issue candidates, this is only to be
expected.
SPREAD THE
(INDEPENDENCE) WORD

The report in last
week's Flag (issue 149) welcoming the Scottish National Party's runaway
victory in a mock school election held at St Mungo's Academy in Glasgow
acted as a timely reminder of the importance of the Scots Independent
Schools Sponsorship campaign.
All polls have shown that
support for Scottish Independence is highest amongst our young people but
that they are least likely to use their vote. The Scots Independent has
long realised the fact that they must be encouraged not only to believe in
Independence but to vote to help achieve it at every opportunity. Towards
this end the newspaper launched in 1998, in memory of Dr Robert D
McIntyre, a Schools Sponsorship Campaign to ensure that a complimentary
copy of the SI would be sent every month to every secondary school, both
public and private, in Scotland.
Thanks to the generosity of
our readers this has been achieved and maintained over the Scottish
Parliament Elections (1999 and 2003), Local Government Elections (1999 and
2003), European Election (2000) and Westminster (Imperial) Election
(2001). The next target is to continue the campaign up to next year's
European Election. To achieve this end we would take this opportunity to
ask visitors to The Flag to join our newspaper readers and Scottish
National Party Branches in backing the Campaign. We suggest a modest
donation of £10.00 but obviously would be delighted to accept donations of
any size. These can be made via the SI Shopping Mall. We are, as always,
grateful for all support in helping to Spread The (Independence) Word to
young Scottish scholars. Thank you.
Visit the SI's Shopping Mall
at
http://www.electricscotland.com/acatalog/index.html
Peter D Wright
Executive Chairman
ALL OVER- BAR THE
LOOTING
Not
an original comment, as I read it somewhere, but too good to ignore; as
noted last week, grave cause for concern as Iraq has escalated into
anarchy.
The situation seems not
to be as bad in Basra, where the Black Watch and the Queen’s Own Dragoon
Guards had established a better relationship with the people, or maybe
that is just what we want to believe, but Baghdad is in a mess. Again,
this should have been foreseen, but perhaps things moved a lot quicker
that the armchair generals expected, if they gave any thought to the
aftermath at all. What is puzzling is the "disappearance" of the
Republican Guard, the Special Republican Guard, the Iraqi Army and the
police, the Baath Party, and virtually everyone connected to the old
regime. What has happened to them all, the minions, big and small, who
dominated and persecuted the people, and who have now melted away?
And what kind of looting is
happening? Is it the action of a people deprived of many of their freedoms
and most of the good things of life, taking from their previous jailers,
or could it also be the plainclothes Republican Guards, and their
associates, getting into official building and removing any evidence which
could be used against them. The country is awash with weapons, and it is
too trite to imagine that organised bandits are just the "ordinary" Iraqis
asserting their new found freedom; more likely is that it will be the
servants of the old regime taking advantage of the chaos and confusion to
cover their tracks and feather their nests.
It is also surprising to
see that already armed forces are returning to Britain and America, when
the troops could be used to help try and restore some of the basic
utilities destroyed in the war; the message seems to be that now that the
coalition has destroyed the infrastructure of their cities, it is time to
go home and let them get on with it. "Now let that be a lesson to you."
The parallels with Afghanistan are striking; the West completed the
destruction of that country started by the Taliban, and then walked away;
no wonder the Arab world regards the West with suspicion.
BUDGET 2003
The
Budget Speech was last Wednesday, and I watched bits of the Westminster
production; nothing came over to me very clearly, so I decided to wait
until the smoke and mirrors effect had cleared a little before making any
comment.
It now looks as if has
been a non-event, and if there are any sneaky little nasties in there, no
one has noticed them as yet; normally with the Chancellor’s sleight of
hand his original speech and window dressing is greeted reasonably
favourably, followed a few days later by "Hey, wait a minute..!" as the
small print is scrutinised. A case in point was in his first budget when
he quietly slipped in the withdrawal of a tax relief on pension funds,
costing the funds around £5 billion per year; now nearly every pension
fund is in trouble, people are being told that they will not get the
pension they had been assured they would get, and companies are closing
final salary schemes. A bright boy indeed. I think it was in the same
budget that he increased the Old Age Pension by the princely sum of 75p
per week.
Here is a selection of
comments on the latest Budget from various institutions, culled from "The
Observer":
"One has to question a
Government that gives funds to a child at birth but charges university
tuition fees for 18 year olds." Sedgwick Independent Financial
Consultants. (An English comment, but also applies in Scotland despite the
Liberal claim that they "abolished" tuition fees, while merely deferring
them.)
"It appears that the
Government’s approach to financial security for pensioners is to cross its
fingers." - Help the Aged.
"Each Budget seems more
monumentally boring than the last." Ernst & Young.
"Unless a big increase in
the child tax credit is made, the first target for ending child poverty
will be missed." - Child Poverty Action Group.
And of course, nearly every
commentator thought that the Chancellor’s estimate for growth was too
optimistic, more Micawber than Prudence, one said.
A MASTERSTROKE
Some
things in politics are so glaringly obvious that we political animals do
not see them. Looking and listening to the furore over the SNP’s Party
Political Broadcast, I said to my wife "What a fuss, particularly when the
broadcast has not even been shown; I wonder why?" Her response was
"Because they want it stopped." Simple!
I liked the broadcast;
I did not see it as particularly bad taste, or frightening for older
people, but then I am 68 years old, dependent on the National Health
Service, and dull, boring and moralistic, so I am not familiar with the
moral high ground occupied by so many of our politicians and their
journalistic spear-carriers. What the SNP did do was to set the agenda,
and it got the chattering classes chattering about what it wanted them to
chatter about.
To clarify, for
those who did not see the broadcast, it consisted of an elderly man (68?)
sitting in his chair, waiting for a letter to go into hospital; the clock
ticked, and ticked, and ticked, the man wheezed, briefly remembered happy
days, and finally, the chair was empty. The only words, not spoken, were:
"Labour said they’d reduce
waiting lists."
"They haven’t."
"Labour
said they’d deal with bed shortages."
"They haven’t."
"Labour said they’d tackle staff shortages."
"They haven’t."
"How long can you wait?"
"More pay for nurses will mean more nurses."
"More nurses would drive down waiting times."
Comments on this, before it
was screened; the Tories (!!) said it crossed "the line of decency."
Labour said it was "in poor taste", although they had also claimed that
people on waiting lists were dying while waiting for treatment, but that
was before they themselves were elected, and the Liberals, never ones to
use three words when thirty will do , "At the outset of this campaign, Jim
Wallace wrote to all the main parties, calling for a positive campaign
based on the issues which face Scotland at this time. People tell us on
the doorstep that they want a positive campaign. All politicians should
heed that message." More a sound sandwich than a bite, but trying , as
usual , to show the Liberals as political "goodie two- shoes." From my
recollection, the most vicious, underhanded person I ever shared a
platform with was a Liberal, away back in 1974; I can’t remember his name,
but the Labour and Tory speakers were Councillor Robin Cook, and
Councillor Malcolm Rifkind.
John Swinney’s comment;
"They can say what they like, but what they can’t say is that it isn’t
true." There have been no comments from the opposition since the broadcast
was shown, and when John Swinney was quizzed by the audience on the
Scottish 500 on Tuesday night, no mention of the broadcast either. Reckon
the other parties lost that one.
The broadcast can be seen
at rtsp://www.snp.org/wait.rm
THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL
The
Election Campaign is hotting up; I said last week that I was not sure if
the Liberals had launched their manifesto or not, but now they appear to
have launched it this week, and I am not sure if they have launched it or
not; a bit unkind, I know, but smirking Jim Wallace deserves it.
So what’s new? Well,
Labour have launched a poster campaign , following on their party
political broadcast about DIVORCE, and the break-up of Britain if you vote
for these nasty Nationalists; this is a re-run of what they did in 1999,
and it worked then, but this time they are on the back foot. Mr McConnell
is claiming the SNP is deceiving the voters over Independence; how this is
happening is a mystery. Imagine, the SNP stands for Independence, now
there’s news!! He must think the electorate is as stupid as his own party.
Mr McConnell, like many Unionist politicians has selective amnesia; last
April, at First Minister’s Questions, he inferred that he had read the SNP
policy document "Talking Independence". Well, he was able to tell his
sniggering cronies, who pass for a Cabinet, that there were 14308 words in
the SNP document, so he must have counted them, a bit of a waste of public
money on his salary. Or did he have a civil servant count them, another
waste of public (our) money? Whatever, he cannot claim ignorance of the
SNP policy; he has one answer to a lot of accusations. When he is asked
by, usually, John Swinney, a question he doesn’t want to answer, he always
says that John is trying to make "cheap political points."
Anyway, this week he called
on his big brother, the Blessed Tony to give him a hand; he obliged, and
spent the time attacking the SNP, which is a refreshing change, involving
himself in such mundane things as a Scottish Election. Mr Blair is good at
saying one thing and doing another, after all he agreed to attack Iraq,
even although he had said he would not do it without a second UN
resolution. He survived the biggest back bench Labour rebellion of all
time, alienated our European partners and stopped off in Scotland on his
way to mend fences in Germany before going to Athens. To avoid his visit
to bolster New Labour being added to the election expenses, he went into
Leuchars to welcome home some of the aircrew from Iraq; no flies on our
Tony when it comes to spending public money to Labour’s benefit. The
Chancellor, Gordon Brown, is also up here, again speaking up for New
Labour, but we don’t yet know what official peg he is hanging his visit
on.
The sum total is that New
Labour are running scared; the SNP are very, very professional in their
attitudes and presentations, and while I don’t like the comparison, they
have out-New Laboured New Labour. John Swinney was on the Scottish 500 on
Tuesday, where a studio audience of 100 questions every party leader, and
he was very relaxed and confident. The SNP is setting the agenda, as in
its party political broadcast, and the others have to react; noticeable
that Labour’s broadcast attacked the SNP, only, the Blessed Tony attacked
the SNP, only, and you would not imagine that there were any other
parties; well, the Tories’ mantle has been taken over by New Labour, and
the Liberals are the New Labour second team. New Labour know that it is
between them and the SNP, and they are worried.
There was also a System
Three poll which asked "Should the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh or the
Westminster Parliament in London be responsible for powers that influence
growth in the Scottish economy?"
70% said the Scottish
Parliament , 24% said the Westminster Parliament, and 6% didn’t know.
To the further question
"Should the Scottish Parliament or the Westminster Parliament in London be
responsible for setting and collecting all taxes in Scotland?"
67% said the Scottish
Parliament, 26% the Westminster Parliament, 7% didn’t know.
So, it is so far, so good,
and as long as the SNP retains the high ground, and doesn’t let any Labour
attack deflect them, we will do very well indeed.
FOOT IN THE MOUTH
NOTES
The
Liberal leader, Jim Wallace, launching his party’s manifesto, "Maybe we
are too honest for our own good."
Or perhaps just
politically naive, to be kind about it.
Iain Gray, currently
Enterprise Minister, on Labour’s manifesto "It is a serious mistake to
believe there is no reference to Scottish Enterprise simply because the
words are not there."
Definitely a serious
mistake somewhere.
Tesco
say they are creating 1500 "new" jobs in Scotland, and are taking more
products from Scottish suppliers; they instance Highland Spring, Blackford,
Perthshire.
Highland Spring employs
about 130 people in Blackford; it is owned by His Excellency Mohammed
Mardi al-Tajir, of Dubai, who bought himself a Scottish Estate when
he was the ambassador at the Court of St James.
George Galloway, Labour MP
for Glasgow Central, who wanted Arab countries to rise up against the
coalition forces in Iraq has claimed that any move to oust him from the
Labour Party would be seen as an attack on British Muslims.
We await with interest
the situation when Glasgow Central disappears after boundary changes and
is subsumed into Glasgow Govan; the MP for Glasgow Govan is Mohammad
Sarwar, Britain’s only Muslim MP.
We hear on the
grapevine that New Labour has a new slogan.
A pledge a day keeps the
SNP away.
SYNOPSIS
All these items are to do
with the forthcoming election; well, you never expected anything else, did
you?
John Swinney pledges to cap Holyrood cost
Wed 16 Apr 03
SNP
leader John Swinney has pledged to freeze at present levels the money
spent on the new Scottish Parliament building if his party gains power in
May. He would order "not a penny more" to be spent than the total cost so
far - about £338 million - he said. Mr Swinney also claimed he would order
an inquiry into how the original cost of a Scottish Parliament came to be
given as £40 million. The SNP leader made the pledge in an audience
question-and-answer session on Scottish TV's "Scottish 500" programme,
screened last night. He was seeking to exploit the discomfiture of First
Minister Jack McConnell, who on the same programme last week was forced
into conceding the cost of the ill-starred project could hit £400 million.
The latest cost for the plans, given in January, is £324 million for the
complex or £338 million if the cost of landscaping is included - almost
nine times the original estimate at the time of the 1999 devolution
referendum. Mr Swinney said of that original £40 million figure: "We know
that was a lie. What I will do if I am First Minister is institute a
no-holds-barred inquiry into how that figure was calculated, and how the
people were lied to. On the day I become First Minister I will ask how
much it is estimated that building is going to cost - the current estimate
is about £340 million. And I will say to those responsible for the
project: 'Not a penny more of public money will be spent'."
SNP looks to rebuild schools without PFI-privatisation
Wed 16 Apr 03
SNP
Leader John Swinney today pledged to go further than the current Scottish
Executive plans for rebuilding and refurbishing schools by replacing the
expensive PFI-privatisation with the SNP's Not-For-Profit Trusts.
"Crumbling schools do not provide our children with the right environment
for learning. We will match, brick for brick, the current plans for new
and refurbished schools but we will go further. The simplified means of
funding which is available through Not-for-Profit Trusts will give us even
greater resources". Visiting the PFI built Larbert High School, Mr Swinney
pledged to use Not-For-Profit Trusts to deliver an expanded rebuilding
programme that, unlike PFI, maintains public ownership saying, "With
Not-for-Profit Trusts, communities retain ownership of their schools,
instead of handing them over to private contractors. Too often, the
private PFI owners have demanded such high fees from community groups,
children's clubs and local organisations that they have been forced out of
their own schools. With Not-for-Profit Trusts, communities retain
ownership of their schools, instead of handing them over to private
contractors". Mr Swinney said the SNP's new and refurbished schools would
not only be better value for the public purse, more new schools could be
built, and better facilities provided than with PFI-privatisation and
added, "It is time to move on from Labour's obsession with privatisation.
We can't wait any longer to put pupils before profit."
Nurses back SNP pay
plans
Wed 16 Apr 03
Nurses
today backed SNP plans to allow different pay levels and backed SNP plans
for increasing pay over and above the UK rate by 11%, by a margin of
almost nine to one. Commenting, SNP Shadow Health Minister Ms Nicola
Sturgeon said, "Nurses have voted overwhelmingly in favour of Scotland
taking a competitive advantage in the market for staff. They know what
every patient knows – more nurses means more beds; more beds means lower
waiting times. We can't wait any longer for Labour to understand this. We
will release our potential by delivering an eleven percent pay rise to
nurses, not simply because they deserve it, but also because it gives
Scotland a competitive edge in the market for staff. This is the path down
which hospitals across England will now go. We cannot stand still with
Labour and see more and more nurses attracted south by higher pay rates.
We cannot wait any longer for the competitive edge we need to attract more
staff."
Economic storm clouds gather over Brown’s visit
Wed 16 Apr 03
The economic storm clouds
are gathering as Chancellor Gordon Brown visits Scotland, SNP Leader John
Swinney said today after three major reports revealed the cost of London
control. Reports from the Office of National Statistics, Bank of Scotland
and the Fraser of Allander Institute all paint a gloomy picture for our
economy with jobs down 24,000, the economic downturn accelerating and the
budget achieving next to nothing to help. Commenting Mr Swinney said, "The
Chancellor has come north to tell Scotland we don’t need to take control
of our own economy on the very same day, the Fraser of Allander Institute
has said his budget did nothing to turn around our faltering economy; the
Office of National Statistics has said the number of jobs in Scotland has
dropped a massive 24,000 in a single year; and a report from the Bank of
Scotland has predicted even lower growth than the miniscule amount we
expected. This is all Gordon Brown has offer – low growth and low
employment. We can't wait any longer for the competitive tools we need to
turn our economy around. The choice at this election is between standing
still with Gordon Brown's appalling economic record or releasing our
potential by moving on to take control of our own economy."
SNP on attack over Council funding
Wed 16 Apr 03
SNP
politicians in Dundee have attacked the Labour Party over misleading
claims about the Council's budget in a Labour leaflet being delivered in
the City. Cllr Willie Sawers, SNP Finance Spokesperson said, "At the
Budget meeting the SNP proposed that the Council should approach the
Scottish Executive seeking adequate funding for the City Council. If the
Labour Party choose to describe calls for additional funding as
incompetent, that shows their total lack of interest in representing
Dundee". Cllrr Dave Beattie, in whose ward the leaflet is being delivered
said, "The Labour Party in Dundee are more interested in spinning a web of
half truths and deceit than in representing and promoting the City. To
fill a leaflet with such nonsense shows it is time for them to go.
Dundonians have waited too long."
Blair offers only "stand still" policies of past Tue 15
Apr 03
SNP Leader John Swinney
today accused Tony Blair of offering Scotland nothing but the stand still
policies that have failed us for decades, after a new report revealed
Scotland is at risk of entering its second recession under Labour. "On the
same day that Tony Blair has chosen to hand out a lecture to run our
country, the huge cost of Labour and London control of the Scottish
economy has been revealed," said Mr Swinney. "A new report published by
the Royal Bank warns that Scotland could plunge into yet another recession
– the second under Labour. And the government itself has revealed that
since 1998, 42,600 businesses have been closed with the loss of 336,000
jobs. The vast majority of the people of Scotland want economic powers to
be transferred from Westminster to the Scottish Parliament. And no wonder.
All Tony Blair has to offer is more of the same failed, stand-still
policies that have already caused one recession and threaten a second. We
can't wait any longer for Labour. It's time to move on."
SNP hound Blair
during flying visit
Tue 15 Apr 03
The
SNP today highlighted London Labour's influence over Jack McConnell and
Scottish Labour when it unveiled a new campaign poster during the PM's
visit north of the border. The SNP campaign poster shows the face of Jack
McConnell set on the body of a Jack Russell Terrier listening attentively
to Tony Blair, "His Master's Voice", on a gramophone. The poster, on a
mobile advertising trailer, will follow Mr Blair throughout his visit to
Scotland. The SNP poster started the day in Pollock Country Park, where
Labour unveiled its own billboard poster attacking Independence, and then
followed the PM until he flew out of the country.
Manifesto highlights - at a glance
Fri 11 Apr 03
CONSTITUTION
- Referendum on independence to be held within the four-year term of an
SNP administration.
ECONOMY
- Cut business rates to below UK rates "within the first term". - No
increase in income tax. - On independence, SNP would "cut the taxes on
growth and increase competitiveness".
HEALTH - Increase
pay of nurses and midwives by 11% on top of any UK settlement - SNP "aim"
for everyone to receive hospital treatment within six months of diagnosis
by 2005 - "Work towards" delivering, by the end of the first term, maximum
wait of six months for first outpatient appointment. - Halt reduction in
acute beds - Make local health councils independent of NHS. - New
independent national patient body. - Early legislation to abolish health
trusts, review number of health boards and devolve some of their powers. -
Abolish charges for dental checkups. - Extending the fruit in schools
scheme to ensure every child gets at least one piece of fruit per day.
LAW & ORDER - Put
1,000 more police officers on streets - Cut time spent by police in court.
- Parental compensation orders to ensure parents take responsibility. -
Improve the efficiency of the Crown Office and the Fiscal service to
improve the number of cases prosecuted. - More secure units. - Weekend
courts, Family courts and Weekend sentences.
EDUCATION
- Starting with deprived areas, cut Primary 1, 2 and 3 class sizes to 18
or less "within five years". - Pilot a national system of supported
childcare. - Improve behaviour through temporary exclusion to special
centres. - Match "brick for brick" any new or modernised school plans on
offer from Labour or Lib Dems but using not-for-profit trusts. - Review
5-14 curriculum. - Allow S3 and S4 youngsters to use colleges for
vocational education. - Abolish the graduate endowment.
ENVIRONMENT
- Aim for 25% of generation from renewable
sources by 2010. - Use Holyrood powers to prevent building of any new
nuclear stations. - On independence, decommission existing facilities at
end of their economic or technical life.
FARMING, FISHING, FORESTRY
- Ensure new regulations only
introduced in Scotland after implementation by majority of EU nations. -
Immediate moratorium on GM crop trials. - Recovery plan for fishing and
aid for onshore businesses including rates relief. RURAL - Review of local
enterprise network will include needs of rural and remote businesses. -
Promote Highlands & Islands airports. - Secure future of post offices.

Keeping in touch with constituents
around Scotland is important. Ian Hudghton SNP MEP
visits Peterhead Harbour with local SNP Councillors and MSP
TRANSPORT
- Public control of the Scotrail franchise through a Not for Profit trust.
- On independence, re-integrate control of track and trains in a single
Scottish National Rail Authority - We will introduce legislation to
re-regulate buses.
GOVERNANCE
- Cut the size of government, with a smaller cabinet and fewer ministers -
Devolve control from government to communities - Introduce fair voting
with STV for council elections - Overhaul local government finance,
replacing council tax with a system which takes account of ability to pay.