GROUNDHOG DAY?

Cast your mind back to March 1999. Then, a genocidal dictator, impeded only slightly by an enfeebled United Nations presence over the past decade, was engaged in a tense stand-off with the combined military might of the United States and the United Kingdom.

To the consternation of France, Russia and China, as well as many other European and World governments, the US and UK appeared set to begin a process of regime change without seeking the authority of the United Nations. Understandably, as Scots prepared to elect a new Parliament, the International situation began to overshadow the election campaign.

The SNP, which had been running neck and neck in the polls with Labour for months, had a leader who was outspoken against the war. Labour began tearing itself apart over its political and financial relationship with the Trade Unions, trying to reach agreement over the level of support they were prepared to provide for the campaign. Meanwhile, academics and business leaders clashed with politicians over the state of the Scottish economy, while the parties squabbled over the prospect of a penny increase in tax.

Sound familiar? Replace Slobodan Milosevic with Saddam Hussein, UNISON and the Private Finance Initiative with the Fire Brigades Union pay dispute, budget deficits real or imagined with the fiscal autonomy debate and the ‘Penny for Scotland’ campaign with the Chancellor’s 1% increase in National Insurance contributions. If you close your eyes, our politicians could almost be fighting the 1999 Scottish Parliament campaign all over again.

Well, almost. While events in a far away country still seem destined to shape Scotland’s elections in 2003, there are a few factors which suggest that events may play out differently to how they did in 1999.

The most obvious point of difference comes with the war itself. Many of the claims of military success in Kosovo were dubious to say the least. However, the conflict appeared to have the support, tacit or otherwise, of the majority of voters as being a 'just war'.

Contrast this with the 80,000 in Glasgow and the 1 million in London who marched against war in Iraq last month, alongside the polls showing 90% opposition to war without UN backing. For the first time, Tony Blair's oft-relied on explanation that he is doing something because it is morally 'right', is being met with widespread derision by the voters.

Contrast also the SNP response to current events with 1999, when Alex Salmond made a much-criticised intervention against the war in Kosovo. History may have shown his analysis to be correct, but his words still came as a surprise to an electorate more used to hearing politicians argue ‘My country right or wrong’ whenever British forces are in action.

Since the September 11 atrocities, the SNP has been consistent in making support for military action conditional on it being backed by evidence and authorised by the United Nations. John Swinney's current opposition to war therefore comes as no surprise and has been accepted by the electorate. Coupled with the party’s long-established opposition to arms sales which will be used for internal repression and to weapons of mass destruction, the outline of an SNP international policy is emerging which puts the party firmly in the mainstream of Scottish opinion.

On the economy too, Labour are in disarray. The principals of Abertay, Glasgow Caledonian and St Andrews Universities have all in the last fortnight come down in favour of allowing the Parliament greater fiscal autonomy. Meanwhile, the party has been left reeling by the disclosure of a memo from senior Labourite Judith Begg, in which she admitted that the SNP’s economic message was "clearer, stronger and more consistent" than was Labour’s.

This ties in neatly with her former employer Wendy Alexander's view, expressed in an email to former SNP depute leader Jim Sillars, that Scottish Labour hadn't contributed a single original idea to the wider Labour movement in 100 years. Yet in spite of this heresay, Wendy is still being wheeled out to speak for Labour on the economy, apparently in preference to the man who replaced her as Enterprise minister, Ian Gray.

It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that, so far at least, the election is being fought on SNP's ground. Even moving onto Labour's self-proclaimed 'preferred' battleground of public services, the SNP is pointing successfully to Labour’s failure to meet pledges on hospital waiting lists, school class sizes and crime.

The SNP is beginning to make ground with the case that our quality of life is determined largely by the extent to which our institutions can implement solutions tailored to Scottish problems. By doing so, the party has succeeded where it has often failed in the past by linking the constitutional issue to the condition of Scotland.

Organisationally, the SNP has made great strides. This time, very few of those involved in the daily grind of the campaign are themselves seeking election. The party manifesto has been extensively ‘road-tested’ and contains no surprise last-minute packages. The party has also been receiving a good reception from Scottish businesses with its economic case for Independence, so long perceived by opponents as an Achilles heel.

The pillars of Labour's 1999 campaign - defence of the Union, sound economic management, well funded public services and an international record to be proud of, have one by one begun to crumble. All of a sudden, it is the SNP which appears to have the most disciplined and coherent campaign, with a team of spokespeople who look as if they could and perhaps should be Government ministers.

There's still 7 weeks to go until polling day. Labour were in a mess this time 4 years ago and as history shows, they still have time to turn things around. Tony Blair could yet emerge with his standing enhanced by events in Iraq, and the SNP could yet fall to pieces under the media and establishment onslaught which undoubtedly awaits.

But much of the work has already been done. Minds are being made up, support is hardening. In spite of Labour’s best efforts, support for Independence still runs at 47%, with 40% support amongst their own members. Even in the face of another negative Labour campaign, it is unlikely that the Scottish people, having observed the SNP mature in Parliament for 4 years will scare quite so easily this time as they did in 1999.

The ground in advance of this election has been laid by the SNP as never before. Have they managed to ensure in the words of Hillaire Belloc that "The stocks were sold, the press was squared, the middle class was quite prepared"? We'll find out in 7 weeks time.

SYNOPSIS

SNP ANNOUNCES PARLIAMENT TO DEBATE IRAQ

The SNP will use its parliamentary time on Thursday, 13 March, to debate the impending war in Iraq, Shadow First Minister, John Swinney MSP, announced today. The party will use its three hours of parliamentary time on Thursday morning to debate a resolution in Mr Swinney's name. He will argue that, * there is no case for going to war against Iraq * troops should not be committed to military action without a specific UN mandate * any pre-emptive action on the part of the US and UK would be contrary to international law

Mr Swinney will lead the debate. Commenting he said, "We may only be days away from a conflict with consequences that will be felt world wide, including here in Scotland, for decades to come. That's why it's vital our Parliament speaks up and represents the people of Scotland in the international debate. We cannot ignore this issue, and much as Labour would like to see us divorced from the international community, Scotland will be affected by this war."

MASSIVE SHORTAGE OF NURSES TO HIT SCOTLAND

Commenting today on the figures from the RCN that Scotland needs an additional 15,000 nurses over the next five years, SNP Shadow Health Minister, Nicola Sturgeon MSP, described the shortfall as highly disturbing trend and that so far the Executive has refused to act. Ms Sturgeon said, "According to the RCN the Health Service in Scotland is facing a shortage of 15,000 nurses over the next five years. This is highly worrying as not only will it plunge the NHS into turmoil but there is also the potential that patients may not receive adequate levels of care. The Scottish Executive has been aware for a number of years that we are facing a demographic time bomb but they have so far failed to tackle this problem. As health minister in an SNP government I would pay nurses an extra 11 per cent so that we could attract more people into the profession before the number of nurses goes into total free-fall."

LIB DEM ATTEMPT TO SCUPPER EU FISHERIES COMPENSATION

SNP Euro MP Ian Hudghton MEP today expressed outrage at attempts by the Lib Dem group in the European Parliament to block plans for 150 million Euro to be allocated for fishing communities hit by the current cod crisis. The move comes the day before the Parliament is due to vote on a key resolution which seeks to compensate the communities affected by December's fisheries decision. Commenting Mr Hudghton said, "It is outrageous that the Liberal group is seeking to deny Scotland's fishing communities compensation which is rightly theirs. The SNP view is that the EU created the current crisis – so the EU should pay compensation for it. The Lib Dem view seems to be that Ross Finnie supported the vote in favour of the crisis and that it's up to the fishermen to pay." Mr Hudghton called on all parties to support the aid package for Scotland's coastal areas, saying, "Two weeks ago in the EP Fisheries Committee, a massive majority approved a resolution – and importantly my own amendment – which made it clear that the EU should find an additional 150 million Euro to compensate our coastal communities. The full Parliament will vote on this tomorrow, and I am calling on MEPs of all parties to rally round and support it. All eyes will be on the Executive parties tomorrow to see how they vote. It is essential that Scotland gets the compensation we deserve – and the Liberals simply must not let Westminster off the hook."

LABOUR CAMPAIGN IN CRISIS AS SNP STEP UP A GEAR

The SNP's election campaign is stepping up a gear this week with the start of daily planning meetings for party chiefs and HQ staff. The move comes in the wake of this weekend's successful SNP Campaign Conference and is aimed at building a head of steam behind the SNP's drive for victory on 1st May. Commenting, SNP Campaign Co-ordinator Nicola Sturgeon MSP said, "The SNP is stepping up its drive for victory on 1st May and will not give the discredited Labour-Lib Dem coalition a moment's peace. We are reaching out on the traditional Scottish principles of fairness, honesty and equal opportunity and, our message is chiming with people from across the political spectrum. Our team will now meet daily to plan our campaign, our canvassers are knocking thousands of doors in every constituency and our message is attracting new converts every day." Ms Sturgeon also criticised Tony Blair when news emerged he was parachuting in his aides to the troubled Labour campaign, "Labour have broken pledge after pledge made to the Scottish people at the last election. Their time is up. The choice that now faces the electorate is whether to stand still with Labour or move on with the SNP."

LABOUR PANIC AS FINANCIAL INDEPENDENCE GAINS GROUND

Labour's crisis-hit campaign was further rocked by news today that former Scottish Labour Party Deputy General Secretary Tommy Sheppard is threatening to vote SNP and, together with former party Treasurer Bob Thomson, both are backing full financial Independence. SNP Shadow Economy Minister Mr Andrew Wilson MSP, welcomed the support of Bob Thomson and Tommy Sheppard saying, "People from all political backgrounds and none are now coming on board for the campaign to give Scotland the tools we need to turn our economy round. Without the powers of financial Independence we are condemned to year after year of mediocre performance, but with those powers we can release our potential, deliver higher growth and the prosperity that comes with it."

JIMMY REID BACKS JIM MATHER’S CANDIDACY

Jim Mather, the SNP Candidate for Argyll & Bute, has welcomed the endorsement of his candidacy by Jimmy Reid – who lives in the constituency. Commenting Mr Mather said, "Jimmy Reid has always been a hero of mine as a result of his countless principled stands on a range of issues. His articles in the Herald and the Scotsman have always been notable for their consistency and compassion. In times of feast or famine, he always makes Scotland a richer place, and now he is supporting me in my bid to make all the people of Argyll & Bute just that. His recognition that our agenda and our pro-enterprise stance is the only sensible way for Scotland to compete, thrive and honour our traditional values is an enormous boost. This will be worrying for George Lyon and the final straw for Hugh Raven. As it is further evidence that the SNP is building a coalition in Argyll & Bute to challenge the current state of affairs that is diminishing living standards and forcing bright capable people to leave."

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