I was somewhat taken aback to discover that the last System Three Opinion Poll I commented on was before Christmas, but then Christmas and New Year intervened, and then I went off to the Caribbean; Richard Thomson referred to the missing one in his contribution in January.

The poll was taken before the massive anti-war demonstration in Glasgow, but even then 57% of all voters were against any war without a second UN resolution, and 27% completely opposed to Britain taking part; only 13% supported Britain taking part irrespective of any UN resolution. Labour has been seriously embarrassed by a motion put down by Susan Deacon, condemning the US government’s intention to do a pre-emptive attack on Iraq and urging the Scottish Parliament to vote against this; Ms Deacon was the Minister for Health in the Parliament until Jack McConnell became First Minister, and has languished, simmering, on the back benches since then. Only 6 Labour MSPs signed her motion, and 45 Labour MSPs refused to express an opinion when asked by the Press; all the SNP MSPs signed the motion. The reaction to this prompted a Robert Seaton from Leith to write to the Glasgow Herald saying "Is it only in Scotland that a member of one political party (Susan Deacon) can accuse a member of another political party (John Swinney) of opportunism for agreeing with her (that a unilateral attack on Iraq without the backing of the United Nations would be wrong)?" The SNP position is quite clear: it is opposed to any war without another UN resolution and proof that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction.

Anyway, according to these figures, Labour would lose 12 seats, all but one to the SNP, but would pick up an additional 3 from the lists. This would leave Labour with 47 seats and the Liberals with 22, an overall majority of 9; however, if the SNP and the Liberals teamed up, they would have 60 seats, but could get 11 from the minority parties. All this is fascinating stuff, but probably at this stage not realpolitik, and Commissar Sheridan will probably not do as well as he hopes. His SSP manifesto could reveal a few things that will raise eyebrows.

Westminster elections seem far away at the moment, but if there is a war, and if the outcome is disastrous, then who knows what could happen there; as it is, we should be concerning ourselves with the people of Iraq, rather than the fate of politicians. The rebellion of 119 Labour Mps in the House of Commons vote on Wednesday 26th February is surely a harbinger of problems to come for Mr Blair; the presence in the same anti-war lobby of Kenneth Clarke, former Tory Chancellor of the Exchequer and leadership contender, likewise bodes ill for Iain Duncan Smith, the current Tory leader, who backed Blair. However, regime change does not have the same importance in Britain as it does in Iraq.

WHEN THIEVES FALL OUT

Some members of his party were not particularly amused by this attitude, and huffed about what they would do if the SNP became the largest party; their pious thoughts were that they would be going against the democratic will of the people (never bothered them before) so they should have a rethink. The leader stoutly resisted these approaches, and kept on about how he would drive a hard bargain with Labour; there has been talk about them demanding 3 Cabinet posts instead of 2, and a firm commitment from Labour to proportional representation for local government. This latter of course explains why they could not support Tricia Marwick’s bill to introduce proportional representation for local government, they would be giving away one of their strongest cards, but they haven’t realised that they have already done this!

They are now compounding their cynical and inept approach to politics by asking for "paperless" candidates to stand for the local government elections, people prepared to stand "for a laugh"; the briefing paper, issued by the Liberals’ chief executive, Dr Derek Barrie, also says "Be shameless in asking. Paperless candidates need not be members of the party and should not be vetted in any way." The idea is to have as many standing on the Liberal ticket as possible, not committing any money, not putting in any effort, but just acting as spoilers; as the Liberals claim to be concerned with local issues, this tactic shows them at their tawdry best. As we have always maintained they are a joke party, so treating democracy just as a laugh is very apposite for them, and is a measure of their contempt for the electorate. Whaur’s yer Chairlie Kennedy noo?

Now from their great friends and colleagues, New Labour, there cometh the following briefing paper to Labour candidates "The Liberal Democrats cannot be trusted to make the hard choices needed in government." They are also accused of being "soft on drugs and soft on crime", "prepared to jump on any passing bandwagon if they think it will get them publicity", are untrustworthy and prepared to hide behind Labour when difficult decisions have to be made. Now why does this tale remind me of the late Ernest Bevin, a member of the Labour Cabinet in the Fifties? When a fellow Minister referred to Aneurin Bevan as "his own worst enemy", Bevin remarked "Not while I’m alive he ain’t."

A MINORITY OF ??

The late Harold Wilson said "A majority of one is a majority". What is of interest in the current state of flux is that the SNP is just forging solidly ahead; nothing spectacular, but just keeping plugging away as they have been doing for the last year. John Swinney is coming over as honest and dependable, and the party is united; there have been one or two spats, principally involving Margo MacDonald, who has now resigned from the Party for the second time (the last time was in 1982) and Dorothy Grace Elder whose resignation last year was eclipsed by the resignation of Wendy Alexander, the Labour Minister for just about everything you could shake a stick at. The SNP is focused, and is sticking with its campaign.

We said before that oppositions do not win elections, governments lose them; war against Iraq is splitting the Labour Party, the financial affairs of the First Minister’s Motherwell & Wishaw constituency are undergoing a police investigation, and although Mr McConnell is supposed to be exonerated, he is not an innocent abroad, but a shrewd and wily political operator, who was after all the General Secretary of the Labour Party in Scotland, never a job for a goodie twoshoes; John Swinney is looking better and better, mainly because he is anyway. Just a few more seats would make the SNP the largest party in the Parliament, and already John is talking of leading a minority government; Labour is aghast at this prospect, describing it as "arrogant" (Yes we know how arrogant the Labour Party has been in Scotland for the last 50 years) and the Liberals are in a panic!

Think about it; no Cabinet seats for the Liberals, no Ministerial Omegas for them to swank around in, and excluded from the corridors of power. Minority government is perfectly feasible; all bills would have to be debated on the floor of the Parliament and would have to be passed on their merits with no certainty as to what level of support they would get. Depending on what was at stake, the other parties could be made to look as if they are playing "dog in the manger" politics, or even better, London lackeys, for one thing is for sure, the SNP will not be following all the diktats from Tony Blair or Helen Liddell. What a brilliant prospect, and the Parliament will become really alive and meaningful

Just realised I forgot to mention the Tories, so that’s them mentioned.

LIBERTIES WITH STATUES

In conversation, they correctly identified my accent as Scottish, and one lady had already been to Scotland; one of the other had not, but was visiting Ireland this year, as her grandparents had come from County Cavan. This was a remarkable coincidence, as my paternal grandparents had also come from County Cavan; her families were Dolans, the only name I caught, while mine were Hilleys and Lynches. Strange small world, indeed. However, what intrigued me was that the lady who had visited Scotland had been to Edinburgh, and spoke of how she had enjoyed seeing the "Bobbie Burns memorial garden"; as an Edinburgh resident for 33 years, I thought that I must need to get out more, as I hadn’t a clue as to where that was, but I just politely agreed at the time.

Anyway, when I returned home, none of my friends had heard of it either, but there was a controversy going on about a non-existent statue to Robert Burns. What started it all was a letter from Kevin Pringle, SNP Parliamentary Candidate for Edinburgh Central, who thought that the statue to the Duke of Wellington in Princes Street should be removed, and a statue to Burns put in its place; after all, why should we in our brave new Scottish world, celebrate a military hero of the now defunct British Empire, when in our capital city there was no monument to Scotland’s most famous poet? This raised a veritable hornets’ nest, both for and against; first Kevin was accused of being anti-English, but it transpires that the Duke of Wellington was an Irishman (no one has yet speculated on the nationality of his horse, but it was called Copenhagen). Then someone said that it was thanks to the Duke that we did not now speak French, as if we had lost the Battle of Waterloo, that would have been one consequence; along comes another correspondent to say that it was thanks to Marshal Blucher and his Prussians who arrived at Waterloo in the nick of time to pull Wellington’s chestnuts out of the fire, so what’s all this glory thing?

As the tide of letters flowed, along came an article from Noel Dolan, who used to work for Alex Salmond, as to why we still had streets in Edinburgh named after Hanoverian Kings and Queens, and the "Butcher" Cumberland; what about Burns, Bruce and Wallace? A suggestion was made about renaming Charlotte Square, but then another correspondent said Charlotte (who?), was a much-loved Queen! As far as I can establish, she was the wife of George III, the officially mad one, and she was Queen Victoria’s granny; she was a princess from Mecklenburg-Strelitz, a tiny pricipality adjoining Schleswig Holstein, of which we also know very little. She lived from 1744-1818, and had 15 children; according to the terms of her marriage contract (written in Latin), "She should leave for England immediately, join the Anglican church and be married according to Anglican rites, and never involve herself in politics."

Then we digressed to Shakespeare, and how the Londoners had neglected him, or was putting a statue in Leicester Square neglect or not? And the last bit of all this was how the Irish dealt with the practicalities when they became independent; in Dublin, Sackville Street had become O’Connell Street, Queen Victoria’s statue outside the Dail went, and Kingstown reverted to Dun Laoghaire, but the Irish were selective and left most names; we were exhorted to take a fresh look at things. All this was fascinating, and in the midst of it all we learned that the HCI Hospital in Clydebank, bought for the Scottish National Health Service, had been renamed "The Golden Jubilee National Hospital". Plus ca change........

FOOT IN THE MOUTH NOTES

I well remember that when Teddy Taylor, former Tory MP for Glasgow Cathcart stood for Southend, Gordon Wilson, Chairman of the SNP, dubbed it "A home run"; bye bye Malcolm.

From the Business Scotsman "But the firm (Craig & Rose) that used to supply the paint for the Fourth Road Bridge has experienced a decline in its traditional markets."

They obviously used a spellchecker that didn’t have a geographical section, or a historical one for that matter; the paint was supplied for the Forth Railway Bridge.

Another spellchecker caused hilarity on the Oldmeldrum, Aberdeenshire, community website; the local bus service, run by Bains of Kemnay saw the name Bains converted to Basins, and the bus ran to Kenya - a bargain at £2.50.

The good folk of Inverurie were not neglected either. Their town was renamed "Insecure", and they wonder if the spellchecker knows something they don’t.

The Scottish Executive is to cut its advertising budget by a quarter for the year 2003-2004.

Is it cynical to observe that the Scottish elections will be over on 1st May 2003?

The following quote is attributed to Aneurin Bevan, although some sources say Ernest Bevin; it is dated 18th May 1945. "This island is almost made of coal and surrounded by fish. Only an organising genius could produce a shortage of coal and fish in Great Britain at the same time."

The Westminster government has had a continuous line of organising geniuses.

SYNOPSIS

The Electoral Commission has found Jack McConnell's constituency party guilty of breaking the law after failing to register almost £10,000 in donations. In a letter to SNP Leader John Swinney MSP today in response to a complaint made by the party, Electoral Commission Chairman Sam Young detailed breaches of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 for failing to register £7,580 from the 2002 Red Rose Dinner and failing to register £1,875 from the Iron and Steel Trade Confederation. Commenting, SNP Election Co-ordinator Nicola Sturgeon MSP said, "This is a vindication of the SNP's determination to expose the sleaze at the heart of Jack McConnell's Labour Party. It is confirmation that far from being a muddle, Jack McConnell's constituency party broke the law by hiding almost £10,000 of donations. The Electoral Commission's findings also reveal that far from being cleared up, as Jack McConnell would have us believe, this affair still leaves any number of questions unanswered. The Commission says there is insufficient evidence relating to an earlier Red Rose Dinner. Labour conveniently cannot find the accounts for this event, leaving real question marks over the legality of any donations they may have received. With a police investigation still ongoing, the bad smell that lingers around Jack McConnell and his constituency party is not likely to go away any time soon."

SNP Shadow Deputy Minister for Education & Children, Irene McGugan MSP, today rounded on Cathy Jamieson for political posturing over looked after children after the Minister announced a 'get tough' approach. Mrs McGugan's attack came as she highlighted the Minister's professional background as the former head of 'Who Cares Scotland', a leading charity that deals with looked after children. Commenting she said, "There is an almost palpable sense of embarrassment from Cathy Jamieson when she makes 'get tough' pronouncements on looked after children. Before becoming an MSP, she spent her professional life involved with these kids and she knows that this rhetoric is counterproductive and ignores the real problems. When she entered Parliament four years ago she knew the problems and when she took over personal control of the policy she knew the problems, but to hear her get tough rhetoric you would think she is suffering from a severe case of amnesia. I simply cannot accept that given her previous career as head of a leading charity in the field, she doesn't know that attacking and undermining her former colleagues does nothing to help looked after children."

Coalition ministers trying to use civil service for election purposes
Wed 26 Feb 03

The election guidelines published today for the Scottish Parliamentary Elections reveals that during April, when the Parliament is dissolved, Ministers from the coalition parties will be able to use the civil service to cost party policies. SNP Shadow Minister for the Parliament, Fiona Hyslop MSP said that this was a blatant attempt by Labour and the Lib Dems to abuse the impartiality of the civil service for electioneering purposes. Ms Hyslop commented saying, "This is completely unacceptable. Using the civil service to provide information that can be used for electioneering purposes is a blatant attempt by the coalition parties to abuse the impartiality of the civil service. Detailed reading of the guidance notes make it quite clear that it is not the civil service but the Executive Ministers themselves who have actually decided on this course of action. John Swinney has now written to Jack McConnell demanding an explanation for this blatant abuse and insisting that he move immediately to secure the political impartiality of the civil service by barring politicians of every party from using it for electioneering purposes."

Moray MP outraged at Nimrod overspend
Wed 26 Feb 03

Moray SNP MP, Angus Robertson, has challenged the Defence Minister to account for the dramatic waste of public money in the defence sector. His action comes following the recent news that BAE Systems will incur a £750 Million charge for cost overruns and delays in the Nimrod and Astute Submarine contracts that it has with the government. The result of this is that the government has agreed to increase the project funding by hundreds of millions of pounds of taxpayers money. Commenting the SNP MP said, " While the news that BAE and the Ministry of Defence have now resolved the major Nimrod contract problems is very welcome, I am appalled that the cost to the tax payer will be hundreds of millions of pounds. In recent years the MoD has repeatedly been in the news over problems with defence contracts and there is clearly something far wrong with the way in which their legal teams are negotiating contract terms with the private companies involved. It is entirely unacceptable for there to be repeated delays and cost overruns. There are inevitable knock-on problems for the RAF personnel on the ground to deal with and for maintaining efficient and modern security forces to protect Scotland and the UK."

Christine Grahame backs campaign against care home closure
Wed 26 Feb 03

SNP MSP Christine Grahame has given her backing to the relatives and friends of residents in four care homes threatened with closure, as they launch a national campaign to highlight the funding crisis in care for the elderly. Campaigners will launch their campaign, "Who Cares?" by lobbying the 129 MSPs at the Scottish Parliament tomorrow. Ms Grahame said, "This is a national issue that needs to be addressed and I fully support those involved with the campaign. Relatives and friends of the residents in St Meddan's Court in Troon, Leslie House in Fife, Cockenzie House in Midlothian, and Belhaven Nursing Home in Dunbar, all of which are threatened with closure, are launching the campaign to draw attention to the national crisis of lack of funding for the care of the elderly."  

Commenting on the fact that agency nurses cost the NHS 24.5 million pounds last year - up 22 percent on the previous year - SNP Shadow Health Minister, Nicola Sturgeon MSP, today said that if these individuals were employed directly by the NHS on an average nurse's wage the saving to the NHS would be more than 13 million pounds. Ms Sturgeon also reiterated her pledge that as Health Minister in an SNP Government she would increase nurses pay 11 percent in order to recruit and retain much needed health professionals in the NHS. Ms Sturgeon said, "Last year the cost to the NHS in Scotland of using agency nurses was 24.5 million pounds - an increase of 22 percent over the previous year. A large percentage of this would have gone not to the nurses but to pay commission charges to agencies. I understand and accept that in certain instances hospitals have no option but to use agency nurses but this should be the exception rather than the rule. If these nurses were employed directly by the NHS and were on an average wage for their grade the cost to the public purse would be 11.5 million pounds - a saving of 13 million pounds."

Following the launch today of the Executive's report into the number of rough sleepers in Scotland SNP Shadow Deputy Social Justice Minister Ms Linda Fabiani MSP labelled the figures as 'a total fallacy'. The Executive pledged that there would be no rough sleepers by 2002 and then changed the date to 2003, but this has still not happened. Commenting today Ms Fabiani said, "The report states that not one rough sleeper was interviewed every time the survey took place, which suggests that the figure showing a 14 percent is a total fallacy. Reports from the Cyrenians state that there are approximately 11,000 rough sleepers in Scotland each year which totally demolishes the Executive's claim that the figure is a mere 404. Once again the government's rhetoric does not match reality and instead of fiddling figures they must work more closely with local authorities and charities so the needs of all homeless people across Scotland can be met."

Shadow First Minister John Swinney MSP today said Scotland must face the reality of EU enlargement and the increased competition it will bring. Delivering the closing address at the 'Common Cents?' Conference on Scotland and the Euro, Mr Swinney said, "The twin advent of the single currency and European enlargement presents us with both a threat but also a massive opportunity. An EU of 25 member states - new and existing members - will be making maximum use of the full range of economic, tax, trade, and transport powers that all Independent countries enjoy." Mr Swinney went on to say Scotland's response should be to embrace the single currency to maximise our trading opportunities but warned the competitiveness Scotland needs to survive and prosper cannot be achieved through the Euro alone. "Without the same powers that new and existing member states exploit to the full we will be hung out to dry. Without the ability to give ourselves a competitive advantage, the results could prove disastrous. But with those powers I have no doubt that the dynamic people of this country will take full advantage. In those circumstances the Euro and enlargement will not be a huge threat; it will be a huge opportunity.

The Scottish Executive's Manufacturing Steering Group today backed SNP plans to cut business rates and give Scotland a competitive advantage in the world economy. Shadow Enterprise Minister Andrew Wilson MSP, said the report, 'Nurturing Wealth Creation', flatly contradicts yesterday's attack on SNP economic policy from Paul Boateng, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury. "On the day Paul Boateng made a day trip north to lecture Scots on our own economy, his attack on the SNP has been flatly contradicted by the Scottish Executive's own experts," said Mr Wilson. "Their report spells out the pressing need for a cut in business rates to the same level as UK poundage rates. Their criticism of the Executive's failure to give the economy the priority it deserves is a stinging rebuke to Jack McConnell and Iain Gray and the direct criticism of the increases in business tax convicts the Chief Secretary of damaging our economy. So much for Mr Boateng and his ill-informed criticism. The era of lobbying London has to end. It is time to take control of the same levers of competitiveness other nations have at their disposal and end the years of economic under-performance."

In his capacity as Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde, Alex Salmond MP delivered the second in a series of three lectures tonight, on the theme of the economics of Scottish Independence. In his speech Mr Salmond said he was trying to be"both specific and constructive" in his suggestions saying, "The first and most important thing the Scottish economy needs is a political body with a sense of ownership for its fate and the power to do something about it. Unfortunately, responsibility without power is a fundamentally flawed concept. Meanwhile Westminster has the following: income tax all bands, national insurance, corporation tax, VAT, fuel duty, stamp duty, beer & wine duty, spirits duty, north sea tax, inheritance tax, climate change levy, aggregates levy, and (a subject close to my heart) gross betting tax. Having financial independence, in and of itself, does not guarantee that things will be better. What it guarantees, however, is that politicians will have to raise their game, grow up, and pay attention to the economy."